By Hemda Ben-Yehuda

Makes the possibly magnificent argument that the Arab-Israeli clash is winding down.

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Extra info for The Arab-Israeli Conflict Transformed: Fifty Years of Interstate and Ethnic Crises

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A special variant of international conflict are protracted-compound conflicts that contain ethnic elements. We demonstrate that the interstate and the ethnic domains interact with each other and influence the institutions that regulate international interaction among the political units. The analysis of crisis magnitude identifies trends and turning points. A shift in outlook in chapters 5 and 6 puts the ethnic domain at the core of our analysis, in search of a better understanding of the Arab-Israeli conflict as a whole.

In this chapter, we combine both approaches, paying special attention to changes in the levels of threat over time, from the high level threat characterizing the first period, and low level threats that gained prominence in the post-1973 years. We begin with an analysis of high gravity crises. High gravity crises High gravity involves threats to existence, to military-related grave damage and to territorial integrity. First among these, threats to existence, the peak level issue at stake, were evident in three of the twenty-six cases under study, two of them in the pre-1973 period and only one in the post-1973 years.

In October 1953 the situation escalated after an Israeli woman and her two children were murdered by infiltrators from Jordan. The international crisis started on 14 October, when the IDF, in a reprisal raid, killed sixtynine civilians and destroyed forty-five houses in the Jordanian village of Qibya. The scale of the Israeli attack endangered the domestic stability in Jordan and put pressure on the Hashemite regime to resist the inter-Arab approach, which advocated a permissive hand toward the Palestinian Fedayeen campaign.

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