By Cyrus R. Mehta and Nitin R. Patel
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Extra resources for SPSS Exact Tests 7.0 for Windows
Using SPSS Exact Tests, you can do that. The following discussion explains how this p value is computed, and why it is exact. For technical details, see Chapter 9. 4) relative to a reference set of other 3 × 4 tables that are like it in every possible respect, except in terms of their reasonableness under the null hypothesis. 4. (see, for example, Fisher, 1973, Yates, 1984, Little, 1989, and Agresti, 1992). x 11 x 21 x 31 x 12 x 22 x 32 x 13 x 23 x 33 x 14 x 24 x 34 9 2 9 5 5 5 5 20 This is a reasonable choice for a reference set, even when these margins are not naturally fixed in the original data set, because they do not contain any information about the null hypothesis being tested.
Thus, even if you ignored the information in the confidence interval, the Monte Carlo point estimate itself is often good enough for routine use. For a more refined analysis, you may prefer to report both the point estimate and the confidence interval. • If you want to replicate someone else’s Monte Carlo results, you need to know the starting seed used previously. SPSS Exact Tests reports the starting seed each time you run a test. If you don’t specify your own starting seed, SPSS Exact Tests provides one.
6 The p value for Fisher’s exact test of independence in the 2 × 2 table is the sum of hypergeometric probabilities for outcomes at least as favorable to the alternative hypothesis as the observed outcome. Let’s apply this line of thought to the tea drinking problem. In this example, the experimental design itself fixes both marginal distributions, since the woman was asked to guess which four cups had the milk added first and therefore which four cups had the tea added first. So, the table has the following general form: Exact Tests Guess Milk Tea Col_Total Pour Milk Tea x 11 x 21 x 12 x 22 4 4 21 Row Total 4 4 8 Focusing on x 11, this cell count can take the values 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4, and designating a value for x 11 determines the other three cell values, given that the marginals are fixed.