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High oil prices are a boon to both the upstream and downstream segments. The sector, however, benefits not directly from the high oil price but from an improvement in demand and supply. SapuraCrest stays our top pick. • The steady rise of the oil price has prompted producers to step up production to meet increasing market demand, thereby benefiting service providers. As at 1 Jan 10, Malaysia produced 657,700 barrels of oil & condensates per day, up 138% since 1980 (Figure 1). • Oil & gas is one of the 12 National Key Economic Areas under the 10th Malaysia Plan.
However, Intel noted that this time around, the cycle will be more gradual. Similarly, Gartner has forecast a modest growth rate of 3% in 2011 for enterprise IT spending, after an expected 2% rise in 2010 led by growth in emerging economies. • After a stellar 2010, chip sales are still set to register growth in 2011 though the growth will be moderating. The SIA expects modest growth of 6% for 2011 and 3% for 2012 as the economy recovers and consumer confidence is restored. Other market researchers have pegged 2011 growth at 5-9%.
We have Outperform calls on both MAS and AirAsia. • Crude oil shipping demand has recovered in the first 10 months of 2010 from 2009 levels, driven by a 1% yoy rise in US oil imports and a massive 19% jump Chinese imports. The outlook for crude oil supply looks positive, with Iraq starting its drilling programme and Brazil developing its deepwater offshore fields. These factors should support long-term shipping demand. • China’s impact on the dry bulk market has been substantial over the past seven years because of its rapid industrialisation and massive infrastructure building programme.