By Andrei I. Kazmin (auth.), Dr. Thomas Url, Univ.-Doz. Dr. Andreas Wörgötter (eds.)

The disappearance of principal deliberate economies left politicians, researchers, experts, and teachers with an curiosity in economies in transition in vagueness concerning the real country of the financial system and its brief and medium time period customers. This quantity offers the reader with info on easy methods to care for the statistical shortcomings of economies in transition. such a lot financial variables released for those international locations are inclined to surround a quick time period or they own a low size caliber. additionally, many of the sequence are topic to structural breaks, as a result swap within the styles of monetary reactions through the years. The contributions during this quantity exhibit a variety of how one can remedy or a minimum of to minimize the prior to pointed out problems.

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Nemenyi 35 2. 8557 where QRE - QRBA - BD CAP - real disposable revenue of enterprises; nominal revenue per investment price index (QRE = RE/PI); budget subsidies for investments deflated by investment price index (QRBA=RB /PI); growth rate of the convertible gross debt. business survey data: the ratio of enterprises declaring capacity utilization problem. 3. 3825 where - DU87 - dummy: equals to 1 in 1987. 66) 36 CHAPTER 2: Macroeconomic Forecasting for Hungary 4. 2708 where QMR RPER - ED - rouble imports; ratio of the modified rouble price index (PER + net export subsidy coefficient, SER), to that of the non-rouble exports (PED+SED); business survey data: the ratio of firms having non-rouble market problems.

1: Growth Rates (percent) GDP Industry Agriculture Households' consumption Investments 1965-80* . 0 Hungary 1989, Average growth rates, World Development Report 1990, World Bank, Stabilization and convertibility (Economic program for 1991-1994), Ministry of Finance, February 1991. J. Nemenyi 21 If the government targets are well-founded and the shift to a moderate growth path by 1992 is not beyond the capacity of the Hungarian economy, it is evident that the constancy assumption concerning the estimated parameters - reflecting factor productivity and adjustment responses of the observation period - cannot hold.

85 . ta.. , K. Hulyak, Zs. Nyary, and M. " Akademiai Konyvkiad6. Halabuk, L. and H. T. " International Economic Review, 66: 871-879. Halpern, L. " Acta Oeconomica, No. 3-4, pp. 293-312. Hulyak, K. " Paper presented to International Conference of Applied Econometrics, Budapest. Hulyak, K. " Tervgazdasagi Intezet Tanulmanyok. Hulyak, K. " In: C. Davis and W. ), Models of Disequilibrium and Shortage in the Centrally Planned Economies. , J. Nemenyi, P. Subicz, and A. " Kozgazdasagi es Jogi Konyvkiad6, Budapest.

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