By Giovanni Cerulli

This ebook offers complicated theoretical and utilized instruments for the implementation of recent micro-econometric innovations in evidence-based software evaluate for the social sciences. the writer offers a complete toolbox for designing rigorous and powerful ex-post application overview utilizing the statistical software program package deal Stata. for every procedure, a statistical presentation is constructed, through a realistic estimation of the therapy results. through the use of either actual and simulated info, readers becomes accustomed to evaluate options, reminiscent of regression-adjustment, matching, difference-in-differences, instrumental-variables and regression-discontinuity-design and are given useful instructions for choosing and utilizing compatible tools for particular coverage contexts.

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6 shows a path diagram offering an intuition of why the causal effect is not identified when the selection depends on unobservables that affect also the target variable. Suppose that D, the selection (or treatment) variable, is affected by two factors, one observable (x) and one unobservable (a). Suppose that a determines not only D but also the outcome Y in a direct way. In such a situation, we cannot produce autonomous and independent modification of D without moving contemporaneously Y. For instance, suppose that a change in D—originated by a one unit change in a—produces a change in Y of 20.

This generally entails a cost-benefit calculus, as applying for a policy program can be costly to some reasonable extent. For instance, in industrial incentives aimed at promoting company fixed investments, firms have to bear opportunity costs, (private) information disclosure of ongoing business projects, administrative costs needed for making an application, and so forth that should be compared with the benefits of applying. As this decision is intrinsically “strategic,” it should not be assumed to be done at random, as firms are “endogenously” involved into this choice.

88) yields: pðY 1 ¼ 1jx, D ¼ 1Þ Á pðD ¼ 1jxÞ pðY 1 ¼ 1jxÞ pðD ¼ 0jxÞ þ pðY 1 ¼ 1jx, D ¼ 1Þ Á pðD ¼ 1jxÞ ð1:90Þ where the width of this interval is p(D ¼ 0 |x). Analogously, for p(Y0 ¼ 1|x) we follow a similar procedure thus getting: pðY 0 ¼ 1jx, D ¼ 0Þ Á pðD ¼ 0jxÞ pðY 0 ¼ 1jxÞ pðD ¼ 1jxÞ þ pðY 0 ¼ 1jx, D ¼ 0Þ Á pðD ¼ 0jxÞ ð1:91Þ whose width is p(D ¼ 1 | x). 91), we finally have6: Observe that the lower bound of ATE(x) is equal to the lower bound of p(Y1 ¼ 1 | x) minus the upper bound of p(Y0 ¼ 1 | x), while the upper bound of ATE(x) is equal to the upper bound of p(Y1 ¼ 1 | x) minus the lower bound of p(Y0 ¼ 1 | x).

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