By Nicos Christodoulakis

This booklet presents a quantitative framework for the research of clash dynamics and for estimating the industrial bills linked to civil wars. the writer develops transformed Lotka-Volterra equations to version clash dynamics, to yield practical representations of conflict procedures, and to permit us to evaluate lengthy clash traps. the commercial charges of civil wars are evaluated with the aid of replacement tools: to begin with, the writer employs a construction functionality to figure out how the destruction of human and actual capital shares undermines fiscal development within the medium time period. Secondly, he develops an artificial keep an eye on process, the place the price is acquired because the divergence of exact fiscal task from a hypothetical direction within the absence of civil struggle. the variation among the 2 ways offers a sign of the antagonistic externalities impinging upon the economic system within the type of institutional destruction. by utilizing distinctive time-series relating to conflict casualties, neighborhood socio-economic signs, and capital inventory destruction through the Greek Civil battle (1946-1949), a full-scale software of the above framework is gifted and discussed.

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Extra info for An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

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First is the problem of simultaneity between explanatory variables and the phenomenon they are used to explain. In the civil war context, factors such as low growth may not only cause civil war, but may also be aggrieved by it. Second is the problem of collinearity, since some of the explanatory variables, rather than being independent, may in fact influence each other. For example, low growth and low school enrollment, which are frequently used to explain the incidence of civil wars, are more likely to feed each other rather than occur independently.

Societies that use to be more inclusive and less repressive are found to be less prone to engaging in a civil war. In contrast, in exclusive social structures only a high degree of repression may thwart a conflict and only temporarily, and the empirical analysis in Greece shows that repression has been counterproductive. Chapter 5 introduces the main two families of dynamic conflict models: The combat models of mutual attrition derived by Lanchester, and the Lotka-Volterra models of species interactions.

Chapter 8 examines the effects of a civil war on the country’s output. First, an endogenous growth model is set up to show how a civil war leads to a higher allocation of public revenues towards the protection of property rights and also to higher taxation, thus lowering economic prospects. An exogenous growth model is also described and used to determine how output is affected by the loss or destruction of production factors. The model is then used to obtain an estimate of GDP losses in Greece for the period 1946–1960.

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