By Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin
How will the realm be capable of feed just about nine billion humans in 2050 and nonetheless continue the ecosystems? during this viewpoint, INRA and CIRAD introduced the initiative, in 2006, to increase a foresight undertaking for analysing matters referring to the world's nutrition and agricultural platforms at the 2050 timeline. This booklet offers an artificial presentation of the most conclusions that this foresight undertaking has yielded. First, it recapitulates the most statistical references for the interval 1961 to 2003, sooner than occurring to explain the Agribiom simulation device used to calculate nutrients biomass source use balances. eventualities at the 2050 timeline are then thought of: Agrimonde move is a trend-based state of affairs that bets on fiscal development to feed the area, in a context the place environmental safety isn't a concern; by contrast, the assumption in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the realm whereas retaining its ecosystems.
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Extra resources for Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050
This grouping of areas and change of scale of analysis is necessary, even though it raises various important questions in the estimation of certain values, as in the development and application of models. The “Belgium-Luxemburg” zone was maintained, whereas from 2000 onwards, the series pertaining to food balances had no data for this set or for either of its units separately (Belgium or Luxemburg). This introduced a slight bias into several evaluations. 4 2 Agribiom: A Tool for Scenario-Building and Hybrid Modelling Middle East - North Africa (MENA) Former Soviet Union (FSU) Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) OECD-1990 (OECD) Areas not included in Agribiom for staƟsƟcal reasons LaƟn America (LAM) Asia (ASIA) 13 Fig.
And the need to leave land fallow (to ensure long-term fertility of soil in the area under consideration). These constraints were used by the team to estimate yields in the case of rainfed and irrigated crops (without assuming real availability of water nor the quality thereof), and according to the three levels of inputs and management mentioned above (low, intermediate and high). The final outputs are estimates of surface areas (1,000 ha), by crop (wheat, rice, etc. with some aggregated categories, including “cereal crops” and “all crops”), by input level (low, intermediate and high) and by the use or otherwise of irrigation (at least for the high and intermediate input levels), for four “suitability classes” for agriculture: VS (very suitable), S (suitable), MS (moderately suitable) and mS The crop catalogue database provides a quantified description of LUT.
G. 2003) chosen to serve as a reference for the study of other simulations, are integrated into a use section called “Residue”.